Trump win wrong-foots forecasters

Posted by Guest in Market commentaries category on 17 Nov 16


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The result of the US presidential election, like that of the UK referendum on the EU, went against the predictions of most opinion pollsters, who had put Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate, slightly ahead prior to the actual vote.  The victory of Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, was in defiance not only of the pollsters, but also of many investors’ expectations. Overturning predictions, Trump won key swing states of Florida, Ohio and North Carolina on his path to the White House. Forecasters have been wrong-footed, and there could be increased turbulence in the stock market while investors digest this new information, and wrestle to understand the implications of the Trump presidency.  

Trump is in many ways an unknown quantity, and his presidency could spell a period of uncertainty for investors.  We shall be monitoring financial markets closely, but it would be reasonable to expect, in the short term at least, a sell-off in equities (company shares), not only in the US but also internationally. The immediate reaction of equity markets was negative, with Asian indices falling. The US dollar also fell, down 3.4% against the Yen as at 5:20am London time.

The US dollar has come under pressure, both because the Trump win is widely believed to make it less likely that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year (higher interest rates generally support a currency), and also because investors may regard investments in the US as more risky.  Turbulence and risk across many asset classes could increase in the short-term.

Looking further ahead, several of Trump’s policies, for example his protectionism, his desire to scrap existing international trade deals, and to deport illegal immigrants, have the potential to contribute to long-term market volatility; but others, for example his plans to slash taxes, including reducing the business rate from 35% to 15%, his plans to encourage repatriation of corporate profits held offshore, and to embark on massive infrastructure spending, could stimulate the US economy, lifting equities.  Much is uncertain, not least because his campaign promises have been long on rhetoric and short on policy detail.

Given the intense degree of attention on the election, and its undoubted political importance, it may seem surprising that within the global equities team at OMGI we made no attempt to predict its result.  We are not in the business of trying to predict events that are very hard to predict. Striving to forecast a binary (either/or) event such as a close-run election is, in our view, not a good way to invest. We have built our investment process on other - we believe sounder - principles.

Macro events and geopolitical events, like the US election, affect our investment process implicitly rather than explicitly. They impact the market, and this is the key for us. We are much more interested in how the market is behaving because that gives us the clues as to how we should position our portfolios.

A stable process

Our investment process involves developing a view of how the stock market is behaving. We have to be very aware of the direction of the market, the volatility (turbulence and risk) of the market, and of the ways in which individual stocks’ returns differ from each other. How, and to what degree, do stock returns vary from each other? How great is most investors’ appetite for taking risk? Are most investors comfortable exposing themselves to higher degrees of risk, in the hope of achieving higher returns, or are they much more risk averse, shunning risk and seeking the safety of  shares in sounder, more stable, higher quality companies? Those kinds of questions are being asked all the time within our portfolio investment process. That leads us to the selection of company shares that we will want to buy.

US equities not cheap

Currently, US equities are generally not cheap in valuation terms, though many of the companies in the US market are high quality, so one might expect to pay a higher price. Parts of the US market are particularly expensive relative to the average. For example, large caps (shares in larger companies) tends to be more expensive than small- and mid-caps (shares in small and medium-sized companies). This is partly because large caps are international, but also because they receive massive inflows from funds that track indices (the biggest of which track baskets of large caps). Other areas of the market that have become more expensive are dividend payers (shares which pay out high levels of dividends to shareholders), and low volatility (shares which move up and down less than the overall stock market).

In my view, active fund managers (who, unlike index products, try to beat the market) have a great opportunity at the moment because there is a lot of mispricing in North America. Although North America as a whole is not cheap, there are cheap areas of North America that can be exploited by investors who are nimble enough.

DISCLAIMER:

Please remember that past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Exchange rate changes may cause the value of overseas investments to rise or fall.

In the UK this communication is issued by Old Mutual Global Investors (UK) Limited. Old Mutual Global Investors (UK) Limited is the appointed investment adviser for Old Mutual Investment Management Limited’s in-house funds. Old Mutual Global Investors is the trading name of Old Mutual Global Investors (UK) Limited and Old Mutual Investment Management Limited. Old Mutual Investment Management Limited, Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4V 4AJ. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Old Mutual Global Investors (UK) Limited, Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4P 4AJ. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. A member of the IA.

This communication is for information purposes only and does not constitute a financial promotion (as defined in the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) or other financial, professional or investment advice in any way. This communication has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to the offer. If you are in doubt about any of the contents of this communication you should obtain independent professional advice.

Nothing in this communication constitutes a recommendation suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation.

It is distributed solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein, nor is it intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the communication.

Any opinions expressed in this communication are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by other business areas or groups of Old Mutual Global Investors as a result of using different assumptions and criteria.

The views and opinions contained herein are third party and may not necessarily represent views expressed or reflected by Willis Owen.

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